The Mortgage Cicerone - The Loan Attraction Coach - Con

Mortgage Pricing Report - 6/19/2009

A New Post By The Mortgage Cicerone.
A Guide for Mortgage Professionals.
Read other posts by The Mortgage Cicerone.

If a family member asked my advice and they were scheduled to close on a mortgage purchase or refinance in the time periods indicated below, I would recommend...

1-7 Days	8-20 Days	21-45 Days	46 Days Plus
Hedge	Hedge	Floating	Floating

 

Market Update as of 2:39 pm (EST) - Market trading upward (green)in the 5 to 10 basis point range and some lenders have made mid-day price improves. Here's a market snapshot:

FNMA 5.0            100-26                   +0-08 

FNMA 5.5            102-16                   +0-05 

 

GNMA 5.0           101-02                   +0-10 

GNMA 5.5           102-23                   +0-08 

 

The Bottom Line (9:19am) - Yesterday afternoon, traders joined in profit taking and the market went into red. I'm expecting lenders to price rates with tighter margin today; along with the MBS market trading in the green (positive) anywhere from 5 to 10 bps for the better. If lenders do price tighter and the MBS market rebounds slightly into the green 5 to 10 bps, it could possibly lead to mid-day price improvements with some lenders? Thus, I'm recommending (with some hesitancy), you hedge your locks in the 1 to 20 day lock period and not lock SOME of your loans if the price-improvement comes today. Be very mindful of movements that could possibly have you lock your loans immediately. Just my educated guess!

Checkout the "MBS Price Data" chart in the far right column (underneath Subscription & Contact Links).

Other excellent sites providing insightful market commentary:

• Daily Market Commentary
• Robert Ashby - Mortgage Market Update
• MBS Commentary
• Daily Market Commentary- WesCorp
• Mortgage Rate Commentary - Moving.Com
• Weekly Economic Commentary - Dr. Raymond James

Important Note: These recommendations to lock or float constitute solely my opinion and are not represented nor should be taken as a guarantee of mortgage rate direction.

Mortgage Pricing Report - 6/18/2009

A New Post By The Mortgage Cicerone.
A Guide for Mortgage Professionals.
Read other posts by The Mortgage Cicerone.

If a family member asked my advice and they were scheduled to close on a mortgage purchase or refinance in the time periods indicated below, I would recommend...

1-7 Days	8-20 Days	21-45 Days	46 Days Plus
Locking	Hedge	Floating	Floating

 

Market Update as of 2:17 pm (EST) - As advised, I hope you locked early this morning. As you can see, the market losses have even exceeded the minimum 13 to 17 bps predicted this AM. Subsequently, lenders are making mid-day price changes for the worse. I also recommend taking a hedging strategy on loans closing in the 8-20 day range.

30 Year MBS Coupons

FNMA 5.0     100-21      -0-27 
FNMA 5.5     102-14      -0-19 

GNMA 5.0     100-28      -0-26 
GNMA 5.5     102-22      -0-16

 

The Bottom Line (8:26 am) - Yesterday afternoon, after five straight days of rallying in the MBS market,traders started selling and participated in profit taking. Hopefully the readers followed my advice at 3:24 pm (EST) yesterday before the tradeoff reversed rates for the worse. My guess is the MBS profit taking will continue today and go at least 13 to 17 basis points into the red.

Checkout the "MBS Price Data" chart in the far right column (underneath Subscription & Contact Links).

Other excellent sites providing insightful market commentary:

• Daily Market Commentary
• Robert Ashby - Mortgage Market Update
• MBS Commentary
• Daily Market Commentary- WesCorp
• Mortgage Rate Commentary - Moving.Com
• Weekly Economic Commentary - Dr. Raymond James

Important Note: These recommendations to lock or float constitute solely my opinion and are not represented nor should be taken as a guarantee of mortgage rate direction.

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Mortgage Pricing Report - 6/17/2009

A New Post By The Mortgage Cicerone.
A Guide for Mortgage Professionals.
Read other posts by The Mortgage Cicerone.

If a family member asked my advice and they were scheduled to close on a mortgage purchase or refinance in the time periods indicated below, I would recommend...

Updated Lock Recommendation - 3:24 pm (EST)

1-7 Days	8-20 Days	21-45 Days	46 Days Plus
Locking	Floating	Floating	Floating

While the market did increase this afternoon as thought, after five straight days of the MBS market rallying, it appears traders are now profit taking before the market closes. I would recommend locking/hedging your pipeline for at least seven days while the market is still in the green.

 

7:29 AM (EST) Recommendation

1-7 Days	8-20 Days	21-45 Days	46 Days Plus
Floating	Floating	Floating	Floating

The Bottom Line - Yesterday morning I went contrary to most mortgage market analysts and predicted rates would improve in the afternoon and they did. I think that trend will continue and MBS coupons will remain in the green with a very slight chance of rates improving this afternoon (don't count on it though). My guess is coupon pricing will continue picking up mojo and improve 5 to 10 basis points today.

For current MBS pricing, checkout the "MBS Price Data" chart in the far right column (underneath Subscription & Contact Links).

Other excellent sites providing insightful market commentary:

• Daily Market Commentary
• Robert Ashby - Mortgage Market Update
• MBS Commentary
• Daily Market Commentary- WesCorp
• Mortgage Rate Commentary - Moving.Com
• Weekly Economic Commentary - Dr. Raymond James

Important Note: These recommendations to lock or float constitute solely my opinion and are not represented nor should be taken as a guarantee of mortgage rate direction.

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Mortgage Pricing Report - 6/16/2009

A New Post By The Mortgage Cicerone.
A Guide for Mortgage Professionals.
Read other posts by The Mortgage Cicerone.

If a family member asked my advice and they were scheduled to close on a mortgage purchase or refinance in the time periods indicated below, I would recommend...

1-7 Days	8-20 Days	21-45 Days	46 Days Plus
Locking	Floating	Floating	Floating

Check MBS pricing here. 

Market Update as of 1:17 pm (EST) - Prices improving and into green this afternoon.

30 Year FNMA MBS Coupons

FNMA 4.5            99-02                     +0-05 

FNMA 5.0            101-10                   +0-05 

FNMA 5.5            102-27                   +0-07 

30 Year GNMA MBS Coupons

GNMA 4.5           99-07                     +0-06 

GNMA 5.0           101-16                   +0-05 

GNMA 5.5           103-02                   +0-06 

 

The Bottom Line - I know some analyst are predicting to lock for 21 days with slight movement into red this morning, however I feel prices will move into green this afternoon...just my gut feel.

For current MBS pricing, checkout the "MBS Price Data" chart in the far right column (underneath Subscription & Contact Links).

Other excellent sites providing insightful market commentary:

• Daily Market Commentary
• Robert Ashby - Mortgage Market Update
• MBS Commentary
• Daily Market Commentary- WesCorp
• Mortgage Rate Commentary - Moving.Com
• Weekly Economic Commentary - Dr. Raymond James

Important Note: These recommendations to lock or float constitute solely my opinion and are not represented nor should be taken as a guarantee of mortgage rate direction.

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Mortgage Pricing Report - 6/12/2009

A New Post By The Mortgage Cicerone.
A Guide for Mortgage Professionals.
Read other posts by The Mortgage Cicerone.

If a family member asked my advice and they were scheduled to close on a mortgage purchase or refinance in the time periods indicated below, I would recommend...

1-7 Days	8-20 Days	21-45 Days	46 Days Plus
Locking	Floating	Floating	Floating

Check MBS pricing here.

Market Update - 6-13-2009 @ 3:02 pm (EST) - As predicted, many lenders made mid-day price improvements to rates.

 

30 Year MBS Coupons  

FNMA 4.5              98-10                     +0-26

FNMA 5.0              100-21                   +0-17

FNMA 5.5              102-10                   +0-10

 

GNMA 4.5             98-14                     +0-26

GNMA 5.0             100-29                   +0-17

GNMA 5.5             102-17                   +0-11

 

Update - 12:47 pm (EST) - Pricing for the better could possibly be looming?

30 Year MBS Coupons

FNMA 4.5      98-03                     +0-19 

FNMA 5.0      100-18                    +0-14 

FNMA 5.5      102-08                    +0-08 

 

GNMA 4.5      98-08                     +0-20 

GNMA 5.0      100-27                    +0-15 

GNMA 5.5      102-15                    +0-09

 

Bottom Line - MBS Coupons as of 11:41 am (EST) are trading in the positive (green). Watch for rates to possibly go slightly lower if trend continues.

FNMA 4.5     98-03         +0-19 
FNMA 5.0     100-18       +0-14 
FNMA 5.5     102-08       +0-08 

GNMA 4.5     98-08        +0-20 
GNMA 5.0     100-27      +0-15 
GNMA 5.5     102-15      +0-09 

For current MBS pricing, checkout the "MBS Price Data" chart in the far right column (underneath Subscription & Contact Links).

Other excellent sites providing insightful market commentary:

• Daily Market Commentary
• Robert Ashby - Mortgage Market Update
• MBS Commentary
• Daily Market Commentary- WesCorp
• Mortgage Rate Commentary - Moving.Com
• Weekly Economic Commentary - Dr. Raymond James

Important Note: These recommendations to lock or float constitute solely my opinion and are not represented nor should be taken as a guarantee of mortgage rate direction.

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Are You Self-Reliant or Reliant...A Case Against the Latter

A New Post By The Mortgage Cicerone.
A Guide for Mortgage Professionals.
Read other posts by The Mortgage Cicerone.

Note: Nighttime satellite photo of Korean Peninsula and the contrasting illumination between North and South Korea.

I'm guessing Milton Friedman would have loved this picture.

In fact, this satellite picture provides a powerful metaphor highlighting the difference between two deeply contrasting political. social and economic systems. Subsequently, it also represents the difference between individuals who are self-reliant/industrious and those who promote entitlement policies that eventually subordinate personal freedoms and produce a citizenry dependent upon the state.

Back to Korea.

While North Korea is ethnically homogeneous with their brethren in the South, there are stark gaps between the two countries separated since the Korean War (1950 - 1952). For example, North Korea developed into a communist dictatorship with a strong centrally planned economy while South Korea became a democracy with a thriving free-market based economy has thrived domestically and globally. 

In addition, isn't it amazing even the fishing fleets in the waters surrounding Korea throw off more light than all of North Korea.

It is my sincere belief we as individuals, an industry and nation can learn from the example of these two countries. It is up to us as citizens and mortgage professionals to take responsibility for both our actions and that of the industry we operate.

Mortgage Pricing Report - 6/11/2009

A New Post By The Mortgage Cicerone.
A Guide for Mortgage Professionals.
Read other posts by The Mortgage Cicerone.

If a family member asked my advice and they were scheduled to close on a mortgage purchase or refinance in the time periods indicated below, I would recommend...

Updated lock recommendation as of 2:38 pm (EST)

1-7 Days	8-20 Days	21-45 Days	46 Days Plus
Locking	Floating	Floating	Floating

 

Morning Recommendation at 9:50 am (EST)

1-7 Days	8-20 Days	21-45 Days	46 Days Plus
Locking	Locking	Floating	Floating

Check MBS pricing here.

Update - 2:31 pm (EST) - MBS coupons still trading in green or positive territory.

FNMA 5.5 102-01  +0-13
GNMA 5.0 100-08  +0-14 

Update - 11:33 am (EST) - MBS coupons trading in green or positive territory.

FNMA 5.0     99-28        +0-10 
GNMA 5.0     100-04     +0-10 

The Bottom line - I'm bordering on locking for 7 or 20 days or less. While I'm leaning towards a 20 day lock recommendation, I would keep my eye on the MBS coupons for further movement into the red, however there is good chance the MBS will see green. Jobless claims released this morning came in 14,000 less than expected at 601,000 and decreased 24,000 from the previous week. Retail Sales (minus auto sales) also came in stronger than expected (.02%) with and increase of .05%. As expected, MBS coupons are taking directional lead from MBS yield curve fluctuations. However, expect traders to begin taking advantage of the deeply discounted rate sheet influentials thus leading to yield spreads tightening. Again, I recommend watching the MPS coupon pricing today.

For current MBS pricing, checkout the "MBS Price Data" chart in the far right column (underneath Subscription & Contact Links).

Other excellent sites providing insightful market commentary:

• Daily Market Commentary
• Robert Ashby - Mortgage Market Update
• MBS Commentary
• Daily Market Commentary- WesCorp
• Mortgage Rate Commentary - Moving.Com
• Weekly Economic Commentary - Dr. Raymond James

Important Note: These recommendations to lock or float constitute solely my opinion and are not represented nor should be taken as a guarantee of mortgage rate direction.

Mortgage Pricing Report - 6/10/2009

A New Post By The Mortgage Cicerone.
A Guide for Mortgage Professionals.
Read other posts by The Mortgage Cicerone.

If a family member asked my advice and they were scheduled to close on a mortgage purchase or refinance in the time periods indicated below, I would recommend...

1-7 Days	8-20 Days	21-45 Days	46 Days Plus
Locking	Locking	Floating	Floating

Check MBS pricing here.

Bottom line - A large portion of the red in Class A MBS coupons today will be due to coupons being rolled forward from June to July...thus the typical settlement that occurs in coupon pricing. However, some of the losses could be occurring with the Russian Central Bank announcement they will be moving funds from US bonds to the IMF issued debt due to concerns US dollar will eventually lose its status as the global reserve currency.

For current MBS pricing, checkout the "MBS Price Data" chart in the far right column (underneath Subscription & Contact Links).

Other excellent sites providing insightful market commentary:

• Daily Market Commentary
• Robert Ashby - Mortgage Market Update
• MBS Commentary
• Daily Market Commentary- WesCorp
• Mortgage Rate Commentary - Moving.Com
• Weekly Economic Commentary - Dr. Raymond James

Important Note: These recommendations to lock or float constitute solely my opinion and are not represented nor should be taken as a guarantee of mortgage rate direction.

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Mortgage Pricing Report - 6/5/2009

A New Post By The Mortgage Cicerone.
A Guide for Mortgage Professionals.
Read other posts by The Mortgage Cicerone.

If a family member asked my advice and they were scheduled to close on a mortgage purchase or refinance in the time periods indicated below, I would recommend...

1-7 Days	8-20 Days	21-45 Days	46 Days Plus
Locking	Locking	Floating	Floating

Check MBS pricing here.

Bottom line - While 345,000 jobs losses in April where reported today, market analysts were expecting the job losses to be 520,000.....much better than expected. Consequently the fixed income sector is selling in droves. 

For current MBS pricing, checkout the "MBS Price Data" chart in the far right column (underneath Subscription & Contact Links).

Other excellent sites providing insightful market commentary:

• Daily Market Commentary
• Robert Ashby - Mortgage Market Update
• MBS Commentary
• Daily Market Commentary- WesCorp
• Mortgage Rate Commentary - Moving.Com
• Weekly Economic Commentary - Dr. Raymond James

Important Note: These recommendations to lock or float constitute solely my opinion and are not represented nor should be taken as a guarantee of mortgage rate direction.

_____________________________________________ Subscribe to The Mortgage Cicerone Email Update Club   To get FREE and fresh high-content information like this post emailed directly to you, simply fill in your name, email address and submit!
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Mortgage Pricing Report - 6/03/09

A New Post By The Mortgage Cicerone.
A Guide for Mortgage Professionals.
Read other posts by The Mortgage Cicerone.

If a family member asked my advice and they were scheduled to close on a mortgage purchase or refinance in the time periods indicated below, I would recommend...

1-7 Days	8-20 Days	21-45 Days	46 Days Plus
Locking	Floating	Floating	Floating

 Check MBS pricing here.

For current MBS pricing, checkout the "MBS Price Data" chart in the far right column (underneath Subscription & Contact Links).

Other excellent sites providing insightful market commentary:

• Daily Market Commentary
• Robert Ashby - Mortgage Market Update
• MBS Commentary
• Daily Market Commentary- WesCorp
• Mortgage Rate Commentary - Moving.Com
• Weekly Economic Commentary - Dr. Raymond James

Important Note: These recommendations to lock or float constitute solely my opinion and are not represented nor should be taken as a guarantee of mortgage rate direction.

_____________________________________________ Subscribe to The Mortgage Cicerone Email Update Club   To get FREE and fresh high-content information like this post emailed directly to you, simply fill in your name, email address and submit!
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